“Calendar anomalies” are the excess market returns that are tied to certain time of the year. Some examples are the January Effect, the Turn-of-the-Month effect, the Halloween Effect and the Moon-Phase effect. Calendar effects are probably the easiest anomalies to trade as they require nothing more than an email alert or even an old-fashioned physical […]

It is no exaggeration to say that investing is the art of decision making in uncertain situations. And we are certainly seeing a lot of uncertainty right now. We’ve already discussed the effects of tariffs (TLDR; they are bad), but here we want to look at the uncertainty caused by the administration’s haphazard communications on […]

In 1947, the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a non-profit organization that has a general website and also publishes an academic journal, started the “Doomsday Clock”. This is a metaphorical measurement of how close the world is to a global, existential catastrophe caused by humans and their technologies. The idea came about […]

We have written before about how overconfidence is a terrible bias for an investor to have. To be fair, it kind of has to be by definition. If it wasn’t a bad thing it wouldn’t be called overconfidence, it would just be confidence. But does the aggregate confidence of consumers matter? Specifically, does confidence in […]

“Only losers add to losers.” – Somebody You have probably heard something like the statement above. It is one of those things that the advisor thinks is a timeless pearl of wisdom. Twitter is full of gurus who spout this type of garbage. These people are popular. But popularity is no guarantee of correctness. My […]