It is no exaggeration to say that investing is the art of decision making in uncertain situations. And we are certainly seeing a lot of uncertainty right now. We’ve already discussed the effects of tariffs (TLDR; they are bad), but here we want to look at the uncertainty caused by the administration’s haphazard communications on […]

In 1947, the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a non-profit organization that has a general website and also publishes an academic journal, started the “Doomsday Clock”. This is a metaphorical measurement of how close the world is to a global, existential catastrophe caused by humans and their technologies. The idea came about […]

We have written before about how overconfidence is a terrible bias for an investor to have. To be fair, it kind of has to be by definition. If it wasn’t a bad thing it wouldn’t be called overconfidence, it would just be confidence. But does the aggregate confidence of consumers matter? Specifically, does confidence in […]

“Only losers add to losers.” – Somebody You have probably heard something like the statement above. It is one of those things that the advisor thinks is a timeless pearl of wisdom. Twitter is full of gurus who spout this type of garbage. These people are popular. But popularity is no guarantee of correctness. My […]

Inflation is probably the economic phenomenon that is most emotive to most people. Unemployment only directly affects a few people, but everyone sees prices go up. Further, the effects continue to be felt. Even when inflation drops to normal levels, prices don’t go down again. There are plenty of people who still think inflation is […]