Inflation is probably the economic phenomenon that is most emotive to most people. Unemployment only directly affects a few people, but everyone sees prices go up. Further, the effects continue to be felt. Even when inflation drops to normal levels, prices don’t go down again. There are plenty of people who still think inflation is […]
CONTINUE READING >The discussion of tariffs is usually based on political leanings rather than economics. Previously ardent free-trade advocates are now firmly in favor of protectionism. And many politicians who have spent their entire careers fighting unions, the minimum wage, and the NLRB are now very interested in the fate of American workers. Most of you are […]
CONTINUE READING >Review the following charts: These are nice examples of a bear market, a bull market, a crash and a bursting bubble. Except that isn’t true. Each price series is randomly generated. And they are all randomly generated using a normal distribution of returns with zero mean and the same volatility (I used different starting […]
CONTINUE READING >“Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.” – Oscar Wilde, The Picture of Dorian Gray There is a very good reason why you should not invest in funds that always sell volatility, no matter the level. Volatility sellers have enormous drawdowns. In the first full week of February 2018, […]
CONTINUE READING >If you want to be reminded about how many, widely varying varieties of dinosaurs existed, you can ask any eight-year-old. Similarly, there are many “dinosaur” investing signals that have survived for a long time. Today we will examine another one. In 1976, Norman Fosback wrote the book, “Stock Market Logic: A Sophisticated Approach to Profits […]
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