Organizing knowledge is vital. I would argue that the transition from data to information is caused by organization. Before the periodic table, chemistry was just a collection of unrelated observations. Before the unifying principle of evolution through natural selection, most of biology made no sense. Categories and frameworks are more helpful than a bunch of […]
CONTINUE READING >In a recent post, we talked about the pessimism bias. Pessimists tend to look at the markets with a short-term view. They feel vindicated by a 10% drop, even if the market is still up 20% on the year. But the most successful investors take a long-term view. A 10% drop is just a temporary […]
CONTINUE READING >“We all agree that pessimism is a mark of superior intellect.” -J.K. Galbraith Here is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) from the start of 2023 to early May 2024. Source: Yahoo Finance Total return was well above the average annual return and conversely, volatility was well below average. The market has been […]
CONTINUE READING >The next Presidential election is in November, and we will write more about the relationships between elections and the markets as the date comes closer. But America is now in a permanent campaign mode, so politics is always relevant. Before we look further, we need to give a warning that political studies are very prone […]
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